Category Archive 'Investment Stuff'
12.12.07
A lot of investors may wonder if they should have invested in stocks or bonds or both. Both investment vehicles have their own merit in the investment world. However, the best investment choice depends on your investment horizon and your risk tolerance.
Bond is a certificate of debt issued by governments or corporations which will be repaid later at maturity. Bond investors get steady stream of interest while the principal will be paid at maturity. Currently, the ten year treasury bond yield 4.48 %. This guarantees investors that held the bond to maturity, an annual 4.48 % return on investment assuming a default risk of 0. Since treasury bond is backed by the United States government, it is safe to say that the default risk is nil. Treasury bond price fluctuates daily. But the potential capital gain from the price change is fairly minimal. As of Tuesday December 6th 2005, the 10 year treasury bond is priced at around par value of $ 100. Therefore, the investors’ main return on investment is through the interest payment of the bond.
When investing in common stock, investors may be rewarded with either dividend payment or capital appreciation or both. Mainly, investors are aiming for capital appreciation profit when they invest in stocks. Historically, stock market indices has returned 10.5% since world war II. Stock investors may be exposed to a lot of risk due to the price volatility. When the company is doing poorly, investors may lose half or all of his principal. Bond investors do not have this problem if the debt issuer still survives.
In my opinion, investors are well served investing in stocks if they will not use the savings for more than five years. The reason is simple. Common stock gives a much larger return than bond. Investing in bond merely get you even with inflation. Some common stock can even give you that kind of return from dividend alone. If stock investors properly calculated the fair value of the common stock, the short-term volatility of stock will not matter. In the long run, stock will be traded close to their fair value.
There is no need for investors with five year investing horizon to avoid common stocks. While investing in treasury bond is theoretically safe, its return barely match inflation. In other words, investing in treasury bond will not make us richer.
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10.12.07
An individual who receives a large cash award can take the services of a structured settlement company and avail the cash in a variety of ways. The settlement amount is paid by a defendant in litigation and it takes a long time for the beneficiary to acquire the total amount. A structured settlement company, in its capacity as a third party financial service provider, can help those who receive substantial amounts of money by offering them the money in a short period of time.
A plaintiff who is to obtain a monetary award from a court in the form of a structured settlement may be in need of immediate cash to cover medical expenses or the cost of litigation. This may not be possible with a structured settlement; structured settlement companies can help in such situations by offering a lump sum for either the entire amount of the settlement or a portion of it.
Structured settlement companies also offer the option of equity annuities that provide protection to the principal which earns an interest as per a guaranteed minimum or in relation to the stock market. Structured settlement companies are also capable of offering manageable access to large amounts of cash to those who win lotteries and sweepstakes. It is in the interest of the beneficiary to do a background check on the structured settlement companies they are comparing; one should go for a company that offers the most competitive rates and has a reputation for ethical dealing.
All said and done it is important for an individual to first understand whether he actually needs the service of a structured settlement company. This is because these companies operate at a profit and the lump sum offered by them is less than the amount of structured settlement sold. Also, structured settlements are guaranteed and tax-free. This is not the case with a lump sum payment, which once in the hands of an individual may be difficult to manage.
One should take the help of an attorney while evaluating structured settlement companies; attorneys help with the paperwork that can include Structured Settlement Agreement, Annuity Applications, and Qualified Assessments.
George Hostetler recommends www.structured-settlements-guide.com/2006/03/do_i_really_nee.html for more information on finding a structured settlement company.
08.12.07
Most investors read a company’s news releases, but don’t read between the lines to understand in which direction the company is heading. Too often, a company tries to say everything in the headline and the first paragraph. Why? Because they know, as we do, that most investors scan the headline, a few sentences and perhaps look at some drill intercepts or key technical data (which few really understand). Then, the investor looks at how the share price reacts to the news, rejoicing or complaining on a stock chat board. Often, key phrases or sentences are buried inside the release, sometimes near the bottom. These may give you a clue as to what is really happening with the company.
We pulled up some recent news releases of several uranium companies we have been following to help investors read between the lines. Only a keen, ruthless appraisal of each news release, or a series of their news releases, could give you an accurate interpretation of how well the company is doing. Hopefully, the guidance which follows may help you better understand what is really going with a company’s plans.
Northwestern Mineral Ventures (TSX-V: NWT; OTCBB: NWTMF) announced on Thursday the completion of its airborne survey. It also announced multiple potential uranium targets in the country of Niger (Africa). Reading an earlier interview we conducted with Dr. John North, a director of this company, he told us, “There appear to be no scarcity of drill targets on the concessions.” So what was the big news? The CEO announced they had “identified several near-surface targets with significant uranium mineralization potential.” That wasn’t the news. Not even close. They already knew that!
The company covered 24,000 line kilometers, more than 14,000 miles. Their first pass-through was cherry picking. The real news was buried in the third paragraph, “…a second airborne survey to further delineate areas with strong uranium potential is expected to commence in the summer.” That should pick out the strongest targets for drilling at a later phase of the company’s exploration. That line also told us they had very encouraging news. If the second airborne confirms strong uranium potential, raising money to push the project through into drilling and advanced exploration will come more easily.
Forsys Metals Corp (TSX: FSY) announced on May 28th a new “detailed drilling” program on the company’s Valencia uranium deposit in Namibia (Africa). Closely spaced reverse circulation drilling will help add more “measured” resource to the company’s feasibility study. Increasing the measured resource will make it easier for the company to raise the money to develop a uranium mine or sell its deposit to a major company. Sounds good, but a news article Forsys Metals posted on its website was of greater interest to us.
A major hurdle in further developing the low grade uranium deposits in Namibia is water. These projects are in a desert. You need water, lots of it, to mine. On May 26th, The Namibian newspaper ran a very encouraging article - good news not only for the Rossing mine, but also for Forsys Metals and UraMin (which also hopes to start mining uranium in Namibia). What was the news? At a breakfast meeting on water conservation and management hosted by the Namibia Economic Society (NES) on Wednesday, NamWater CEO Vaino Shivute, announced, “The desalination plant is back on the table. We are looking into it again how to restart it, look at the problems of the past and learn from that.” With the water issue on its way to a possible resolution, we expect stronger interest in Namibia.
Energy Metals Corporation (TSX: EMC.TO) announced it would commence trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday. EMC Chief Executive Paul Matysek’s quote spelled it out, that because of this it would be possible for “… the Company to reach a broader base of individual investors, mutual funds and institutional investors.” In other words, there would be less dependence upon the retail investor, and more reliance on the big funds to pile into EMC shares. Of course, the little guy will join the party as well.
UR-Energy Inc (TSX: URE.TO) issued a series of news releases between June 5th and Thursday, announcing a number of significant developments. First, they confirmed their uranium resources on their two primary properties, Lost Creek and Lost Soldier, in Wyoming, by filing National Instrument 43-101 documents. Both resources were higher than the historical resource estimates. Second, the company confirmed the leachability of uranium on its Lost Soldier property.
Why is that important? Without the ability to leach the uranium through an In Situ Recovery project, the company would have been forced to raise the money for a far more expensive open pit operation. In an earlier interview, Chief Executive Bill Boberg told us the permeability would be a “go, no-go” consideration on the project. It appears it is a go. Thursday’s news release confirmed that, but buried in the bottom of the news release was a more telling news item. The company is conducting environmental, hydrologic and engineering studies to “generate baseline data.”
During the course of our research in Wyoming, we discovered a company must provide at least one year of baseline data before it can submit its application for a permit to mine in that state. The other piece of data in the news release showed UR-Energy has been working on this and expected to submit its application by mid 2007. In other words, the company is quickly moving forward to establish its In Situ Recovery operation.
Uranerz Energy (OTC BB: URNZ) issued a few telling news releases, which may explain the direction in which they are heading. On June 5th, the company announced a new Chief Financial Officer. URNZ also announced it had closed a financing, bumping up their cash to just under $12 million. URNZ Chief Executive Glenn Catchpole told us he hoped to launch his first In Situ Recovery operation for about, or less than, $10 million. This is a good sign. But, it was the next day’s news release which confirmed the earlier news and reinforced where the company is going. The company announced the appointment of three independent directors to its Board. All three were appointed to the audit committee. Two are accountants with impressive track records; the third has an MBA from the University of Western Ontario, one of North America’s top MBA schools. How do we interpret this news release? URNZ probably plans to move from the lowly over the counter bulletin board to a more senior exchange: Amex or NASDAQ Small Cap would be our guess.
What do you do about a company that hasn’t been issuing a flurry of news releases? Take Strathmore Minerals (TSX: STM; Other OTC: STHJF) as an example. There are developments, but the news stream has been fairly quiet. Have they come to a standstill? No, quite the opposite is true.
We did what any investor should always do in the absence of major news. We picked up the phone and called their investor relations department. During a brief chat with Craig Christy, the company’s spokesman, we asked about the company’s cash situation. He responded, “We have about C$0.55/share in cash.” Based on Thursday’s closing price, that comes to more than 30 percent of what the market is valuing STM. That’s UP from C$0.37/share earlier this year. STM has plenty of cash and is in excellent financial shape.
We looked through our copy of the Hargreave Hale Report, entitled, “Too Hot to Handle or Just Warming up?” This is a leading British financial institution, based in London. They are a major shareholder in STM, and they have been recommending STM shares. On page 32 of their document, we reviewed a great financial analysis of 33 Canadian and Australian uranium producers and development companies. The bar chart depicted the Uranium Enterprise Value (UREV) per Risk Adjusted pound of U3O8 Reserves and Resources of those thirty-three companies. A horizontal line crossed the chart, showing “fair value” of about US$4 million for each company’s UREV per pound adjusted.
It was interesting to study how STM stacked up against many of the most popular uranium companies. Companies, such as Mega Uranium (TSX: MGA) rated at about US$28 million - about 700 percent ABOVE the Hargreave Hale “fair value” analysis. Crosshair Exploration and Mining traded about 500 percent of its fair value. UEX scored about twice above its fair value. Companies such as Uranium Resources, Western Prospector, Paladin Resources and UrAsia Energy scored at or very near their fair value. Strathmore Minerals had the lowest fair value rating - an absolute steal at about 30 percent of its fair value. About 16 companies traded above their fair value, some very much above the Hargreave Hale fair value analysis. It was enlightening to find Strathmore was in the company of producers such as ERA of Australia, IUC, Uranium One and Denison as an undervalued uranium company. In this case, it was the most undervalued of all 33 companies analyzed by the City of London financial institution.
We also found out that, a week ago, Strathmore Minerals president David Miller presented at the invitation-only Raymond James In-Situ Leach Uranium Mini-Conference in Toronto and Montreal on June 7th and 8th. You could visit the Raymond James website for the webcast of David Miller’s presentation, but it has restricted access. Others presenting were Uranium Resources and Energy Metals. We were fortunate to review David Miller’s PowerPoint presentation. One word describes Miller’s presentation: Wow! It really did pack a punch. We heard Raymond James may be releasing these presentations to the public in the near future.
Sometimes, when there is a lack of news, one can learn to dig around and find a company can be doing quite well. In other instances, one can study the news releases and try piecing together where the company is heading. We hope this guidance helps you become a more sophisticated investor. We neither recommend stocks nor give buying and selling advice. As always, speculating on natural resource companies can be very risky and suitable only for certain investors. One should always check with their registered financial advisor about what is suitable or not for one’s investment decisions.
James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. Sign up now and get your free copy of our new book, “Investing in the Great Uranium Bull Market: A Practical Investor’s Guide to Uranium Stocks.” Just visit www.stockinterview.com for details.
30.11.07
There are many different factors that affect stock market levels on a minute-to-minute basis. This includes inflation data, gross domestic product (GDP), interest rates, unemployment, supply, demand, political changes, and broader economic forces, among others.
Complicating this are some general market trends, which have been determined historically to exist. Like their share-price-based brothers, these stock market anomalies may provide buying opportunities for investors. These anomalies include:
Price-based regularities:
1. Lower-priced stocks tend to outperform higher-priced stocks, and companies tend to appreciate in value after the announcement of stock split.
2. Smaller companies tend to outperform larger companies, which is a key reason for investing in small cap stocks.
3, Companies tend to reserve their price direction in the short and long-term.
4. Companies that have a depressed stock price tend to suffer from tax-loss selling in December and bounce back in January.
Calendar-based regularities:
These regularities allow you to better time your investments in the short-term. Although investors should remember that over the long term the benefits of a regular investment plan (investing each month) far outweigh the benefits of trying to time your investment by a day or two, the following patterns have been shown to occur.
1. Time-of-the-day effect. The beginning and the end of the stock market day exhibit different return and volatility characteristics.
2. Day-of-the-week effect. The stock markets tend to start the week weak and finish the week strong.
3. Week-of-the-month effect. The stock market tends to earn the majority of its returns in the first two weeks of the month.
4. Month-of-the-year effect. The first month of the year tends to show increased returns over the rest of the year. This is referred to as the January effect.
Investors should remember that not every anomaly comes about every time, but making sure you’re aware of anomalies will allow you to profit over the long-term and deal with market volatility in the short-term. In short, profit from these anomalies, but don’t aim to make use of these anomalies at the expense of your long-term investment objectives.
About the author: Tony Reed is the author of " Stock Markets are not always right", please visit his website Stock Market & Futures for more information.
This article is free for republishing as long as you leave the article title, author name, body and resource box intact (means NO changes) with the links made active.
24.11.07
StockInterview: How do you feel about uranium, which fuels nuclear reactors and generates electricity, and the uranium bull market for stocks that we’re in right now?
J-F Tardif: We are very bullish. We’re extremely bullish on uranium as a firm, not only for uranium, but we’re also very bullish on energy. Everything is inter-connected because we believe in the peak oil theory. That means the production of oil around the world will eventually peak, yet the demand will continue to increase. That puts a tremendous pressure on oil. With oil going up and natural gas price going up, then this has an effect on coal and uranium prices as well. So that’s why we’re very bullish on uranium.
StockInterview: Isn’t there a special situation, though, with uranium?
J-F Tardif: In the business of uranium, you have a huge shortage of production versus demand. Very close to half of the annual demand is produced from mining. The other half is coming from above ground inventories. Eventually, those inventories go down. Eventually, they go to zero. Obviously, you can not have a zero inventory. So that puts an additional pressure on the uranium price. The fact is we don’t produce enough uranium versus the demand. Rising oil prices puts pressure on the cost of energy so people are looking at alternatives. A lot of the growth in Asia, for example, is in terms of nuclear energy. So there are many reasons to be bullish.
StockInterview: Are uranium stocks still to be held at this time, or is time to circulate money elsewhere?
J-F Tardif: It depends on your view. Our view is to redeem in the long term because we have a bullish view on energy, and uranium. We’re comfortable owning uranium here even though they’ve gone up. But, short term? Who knows the short term? The short term is probably the toughest thing to predict.
Kevin Bambrough: I think a lot of these stocks have run a lot in the short term so that makes us more cautious. There are not as many stocks that have a significant upside like we saw a couple of years ago. It’s not the same picture out there, but there are still a few select companies that have a lot of potential. A lot of companies have gone up. Companies, which we think may not be as good, have also gone up. Perhaps, now is a better time to really focus on the companies we believe are better than others. That is actually something we’ve done here. We’ve started selling those we’re not as confident in as others and have bought other uranium stocks we actually feel more confident in the quality.
StockInterview: It appears the recent uranium market was a bit overbought. On a day-to-day basis, what do you look for when isolating the stocks you want to hold?
J-F Tardif: I cannot say that we’re traders. We do trade. We do buy and sell, sometimes, but we do have a mid-to-long term view about energy. We buy heavily when they’re oversold. We have very important core holdings in the uranium business –
Kevin Bambrough: You could say we have belief in the fundamentals of different companies. If one seems to get overextended relative to another, we may do a switch, but that’s pretty much it.
J-F Tardif: We’ve bought and sold different companies, reduced positions and increased positions. If you look back since we’ve started to invest in uranium, we’ve probably had more dollars invested in uranium every quarter. We keep adding to it, and the value of those holdings actually increased as well. In dollar terms, we’ve got more uranium today than we’ve had six months ago.
StockInterview: How you determine the quality of a uranium stock?
J-F Tardif: The first thing is a high quality resource in the ground or in production. If somebody is already producing, obviously we know they have it. If a company is not producing, but they have a resource, it has to be a high quality resource. This can be done by engineering work and drill holes and experts. I’m not a geologist so I cannot be a technician myself, but other people can. They can say there is X amount of uranium in the ground with X amount of certainty. Those, then, would be the type of stocks in which we would be interested.
Kevin Bambrough: And at a grade that we feel is in economic concentrations at various prices.
StockInterview: But there is such a spread on those concentrations, or grades. It can’t always be the high-grade uranium found in Athabasca. What grades make you comfortable?
J-F Tardif: It’s very different if you have an ore body or a deposit that is very deep in the ground. Obviously, it will be at a different cost than if it’s an open pit. You have to understand how it’s going to eventually be mined. Depending on the grade, let’s say it costs $100/ton to mine somewhere. Your value in the ground is $200/ton. To value the uranium, you then have a $100/ton of gross margin potential. You then figure out the cost per ton and the revenue per ton. Revenue per ton obviously is driven by the grade. Then, you try to figure out who has the best gross margin out there. Then you look at the gross margin versus the market cap and you compare. It’s a lot of analysis and thinking about numbers and guessing. It’s a guessing game as well. Finally, you try to guess the best you can, make an opinion, and make a decision.
StockInterview: How do you size up the geological team running the show, and how big a role do they play in your investment decision?
J-F Tardif: We certainly prefer people that have been involved in uranium for a long time – people that were actually involved in uranium in the 1970s. A guy with 40 years of experience in mining, and 10 years of that in uranium is certainly better than another type of guy who has never dealt with uranium. Management is important, but the deposit is more important. Either they have it or they don’t, right? Obviously we don’t want to go with a company that has management that we don’t like and .with no deposit.
Kevin Bambrough: Early on, when we first started looking at uranium, and the land grab phase was on, we valued management a little more highly then. We were talking to people who were saying things like, “Give us some money, we’re going to go and try and stake some things.” Or they’d say, “We’ve bought a database so we know people who know where these deposits are, and we’re going to get them.” Back then, we were in an early stage. Now, a lot of the most prospective properties have been snatched up. So, now it becomes more about the mining team than it was in the early stage, during the acquiring phase.
J-F Tardif: We want to invest in companies that we think have a good chance at actually producing. One of our successes did happen. The management was very knowledgeable of uranium. They were very knowledgeable of mining. They built a team. They’ve done feasibility studies. They are in the process of building a mine. And they will produce uranium. That company is called Paladin Resources (TSX: PDN)
Kevin Bambrough: From our initial investment we made almost – from the initial investment to the peak that it hit just in the last month, I think we’re up 40 times our money.
StockInterview: Mr. Tardif, in your fund, what percentage do you hold in uranium versus gold?
J-F Tardif: In the fund that I run, the Canadian fund, we have, as we speak today, 3.8 percent in gold and 10.5 percent in uranium. (Editor’s Note: We interviewed Mr. Tardif on February 3rd, 2006.)
StockInterview: Mr. Tardif, what else do you invest in besides gold and uranium?
J-F Tardif: We invest in energy service companies, oil and gas producers, what we call in Canada Business Income Trusts (companies that distribute all of their earnings to shareholders). Some of those companies can give as high as a 10-, 12-, or 13-percent yield on distribution. We also invest in technology, consumer products and so on.
Kevin Bambrough: We also have a gold fund at our firm with over one-half billion dollars invested in gold companies.
StockInterview: When making your general investment decisions, what do you look for?
J-F Tardif: Typically, we buy companies that have rising earnings, rising sales, hopefully rising margins as well. On top of it we try to buy stocks very cheaply. Hopefully, we can see a multiple expansion on top of all of those items. That’s on the long side. When the ratio is very attractive, then we try to take larger positions. On the short side, we try to do the opposite, try to find companies that have earnings growth slowing down, or earnings actually going down. The same with sales: sales growth slowing down or sales going down, margins going down and hopefully a multiple contraction. Basically, there are really two sides to the portfolio.
StockInterview: What strategies do you use before taking the leap?
J-F Tardif: We have many strategies. With oil and gas producers, in Canada with the ones we own, we look at growth of production, growth of cash flow and growth of earnings. We also own some energy services companies. With those companies, we project them to still grow their earnings and sales. We feel that they’re not very expensive. Some income trusts that we own, business income trusts, they’re growing their earnings, growing their sales, and at a multiple we feel they’re not that expensive.
StockInterview: Can you share with us a name one of those stocks you’ve owned for a while?
J-F Tardif: One is called Total – not the big Total. This one is a business income trust in Canada. They actually are an energy service company, providing services to produce oil and gas. The stock actually was around $2, three years ago, and today it’s still trading around 10X earnings for 2006. The company has been growing around roughly 50 percent per year for the last few years. We expect them to grow at least 30 percent for the next two to three years, maybe more.
StockInterview: Care to share another favorite with our readers?
J-F Tardif: In the fund that I run, we’re long a company called Aastra Technologies (TSE: AAH). We like it because management has created a lot of value in the past. We feel they’re still creating value today by buying businesses that have problems. After cutting costs substantially, and making them much more efficient, they then try to grow those businesses going forward. Their business is doing well now. Actually, most of their divisions are growing now, and their earnings now are on the rise. The stock should do well and is a very special situation.
StockInterview: How does your fund move with the market to capitalize upon the market’s momentum?
J-F Tardif: Obviously, the firm has a view about the market, but we try not to apply it too much in this fund. We just go stock by stock. As long as we find good stocks that we like, we buy them. And as long as we find shorts that we like as shorts, we short them. The portfolio ends up being what it is in terms of how much we’re shorting and in terms of how much we’re long. So we don’t go with, “Oh I want to be short or I want to be long.” It’s rather ideas driven, stock driven.
StockInterview: Earlier, you mentioned about taking large positions in stocks with an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. I have read that Sprott Asset Management sometimes takes very large percentage positions in some companies, occasionally more than 10 or 20 percent?
J-F Tardif: It happens that some stocks we own in multiple funds. In the Opportunities Fund, we do own some stocks that are owned by other funds. In total, the firm owns more than 10 percent of a certain number of companies.
Kevin Bambrough: Sometimes it’s a team that will find something, and everyone agrees that they love the company. We go and try to buy 20 percent. Up to 20 percent is usually our limit that we buy in the company. And then, to be fair to all the funds, we spread it around equally across the funds. That’s typically how it happens.
(Editor’s Note: In reviewing uranium holdings, we contacted Strathmore Minerals and Energy Metals about the current percentage holdings in their companies. Ran Davidson, Corporate Communications for Energy Metals (TSX: EMC) reported Sprott Asset Management owned 15.2 percent of EMC. Craig Christy, Investor Relations for Strathmore Minerals (TSX: STM; Other OTC: STHJF) reported Sprott Asset Management owned 21 percent Strathmore Minerals.
James Finch contributes to StockInterview.com and other publications. This feature (with full graphics) and his other archived articles can be found at http://www.stockinterview.com Please contact James Finch by emailing to him at jfinch@stockinterview.com
12.11.07
When the time comes and life comes to an end, the last thing I want to be known for is that I made a lot of money fast and parlayed it into a fortune that future generations of my family will continue to benefit from.
Money is not very important, precisely because I have it. Not more than 5 years ago, it was a different story and every little bump in the road of life hurt because I lacked the soft suspension of money.
They always say “you need money to make money” well I don’t know what is meant by that, if you had money, there would be no problem in the first place. Of course what the advice really means is that you need “some” money that can be applied as an investment to enter an opportunity so you can manufacture a return.
Today I’d like to talk to you about that. If you want to get your hands on your first million and are a little tentative about taking your first steps, then its possible that you are simply missing a few simple insights. So let me tell you what I know before life passes us both by.
You do need a little money to start making your first million, but not a heck of a lot. To make your first million you simply have to create a unit of value then exponentially compound that value over and over again on a grand scale.
By realizing that a day job keeps you enslaved, you then become aware that this “type” of income is threatening to your future and your health! What I mean by that is that earned hourly income is designed to “drip feed” you for your time. Its small compensation and should be definitely seen as a temporary arrangement. Its for the young who still don’t have life experience. The truth is that learning how to make even a single dollar under the power of your own creativity is worth a million dollars to you.
I tell you this, if you can make even that single dollar by doing it outside the framework of an employment agreement, then you have the seeds, in that act, to make your first million in under a year.
By applying yourself in this way and investing your time specifically at doing this you will be free from the burden of money in a short amount of time.
Copyright2006 Martin Thomas
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28.10.07
A correction is a beautiful thing, simply the flip side of a rally, big or small. Theoretically, even technically I’m told, corrections adjust equity prices to their actual value or “support levels”. In reality, it’s much easier than that. Prices go down because of speculator reactions to expectations of news, speculator reactions to actual news, and investor profit taking. The two former “becauses” are more potent than ever before because there is more “self directed” money out there than ever before. And therein lies the core of correctional beauty! Mutual Fund unit holders rarely take profits but often take losses. Opportunities abound!
Here’s a list of ten things to do and/or to think about doing during corrections of any magnitude:
1. Your present Asset Allocation should have been tuned in to your goals and objectives. Resist the urge to decrease your Equity allocation because you expect a further fall in stock prices. That would be an attempt to time the market, which is (rather obviously) impossible. Proper Asset Allocation has nothing to do with market expectations.
2. Take a look at the past. There has never been a correction that has not proven to be a buying opportunity, so start collecting a diverse group of high quality, dividend paying, NYSE companies as they move lower in price. I start shopping at 20% below the 52-week high water mark, and the shelves are full.
3. Don’t hoard that “smart cash” you accumulated during the last rally, and don’t look back and get yourself agitated because you might buy some issues too soon. There are no crystal balls, and no place for hindsight in an investment strategy.
4. Take a look at the future. Nope, you can’t tell when the rally will come or how long it will last. If you are buying quality equities now (as you certainly could be) you will be able to love the rally even more than you did the last time… as you take yet another round of profits. Smiles broaden with each new realized gain, especially when most folk are still head scratchin’.
5. As (or if) the correction continues, buy more slowly as opposed to more quickly, and establish new positions incompletely. Hope for a short and steep decline, but prepare for a long one. There’s more to Shop at The Gap than meets the eye.
6. Your understanding and use of the Smart Cash concept has proven the wisdom of The Investor’s Creed. You should be out of cash while the market is still correcting. [It gets less and less scary each time.] As long your cash flow continues unabated, the change in market value is merely a perceptual issue.
7. Note that your Working Capital is still growing, in spite of falling prices, and examine your holdings for opportunities to average down on cost per share or to increase yield (on fixed income securities). Examine both fundamentals and price, lean hard on your experience, and don’t force the issue.
8. Identify new buying opportunities using a consistent set of rules, rally or correction. That way you will always know which of the two you are dealing with in spite of what the Wall Street propaganda mill spits out. Focus on value stocks; it’s just easier, as well as being less risky, and better for your peace of mind. Just think where you would be today had you heeded this advice years ago…
9. Examine your portfolio’s performance: with your asset allocation and investment objectives clearly in focus; in terms of market and interest rate cycles as opposed to calendar Quarters (never do that) and Years; and only with the use of the Working Capital Model, because it allows for your personal asset allocation. Remember, there is really no single index number to use for comparison purposes with a properly designed value portfolio.
10. Finally, ask your broker/advisor why your portfolio has not yet surpassed the levels it boasted five years ago. If it has, say thank you and continue with what you’ve been doing. This one is like golf, if you claim a better score than the reality, you’ll eventually lose money.
11. One more thought to consider. So long as everything is down, there is nothing to worry about.
Corrections (of all types) will vary in depth and duration, and both characteristics are clearly visible only in institutional grade rear view mirrors. The short and deep ones are most lovable (kind of like men, I’m told); the long and slow ones are more difficult to deal with. Most corrections are “45s” (August and September, ‘05), and difficult to take advantage of with Mutual Funds. But amid all of this uncertainty, there is one indisputable fact: there has never been a correction that has not succumbed to the next rally… its more popular flip side. So smile through the hum drum Everydays of the correction, you just might meet Peggy Sue tomorrow.
Steve Selengut
www.sancoservices.com
Professional Investment Portfolio Manager since 1979
BA Business, Gettysburg College; MBA Professional Management, Pace U.
Author of: “The Brainwashing of the American Investor: The Book that Wall Street Does Not Want YOU to Read”, and “A Millionaire’s Secret Investment Strategy”
11.10.07
Thailand’s Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra resignation this month is a major opportunity for investors willing to step into a temporary political vacuum.
The Prime Minister’s surprise announcement came after a meeting with the symbolically powerful King of Thailand, Bhumibol Aduljadej, at his seaside palace. The King has presided over Thailand since 1946 and is revered by all.
As in the past when the political temperature reaches boiling point, a curt nod from the King is enough to send even the most imperious Prime Minister packing. This safety valve is a key part of Thailand’s constitutional monarchy which helps it to maintain stability in times of a crisis.
Investors should not stay on the sideline until a new premier is selected when parliament resumes within the next 30 days but should act now to take advantage of an undervalued Thai market.
With a land area more than twice the size of Wyoming, Thailand is a youthful solid middle-income country with a consumer-oriented middle class. Its economy is well diversified, is rich in natural resources, and has a vibrant manufacturing sector and strong exports.
While many Asian markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan are hitting multi-year record highs, the Thai market has lagged due largely to the political turmoil. GDP growth for 2006 should match or better last years 4.5% number and fuel subsidies have been cut relieving pressure on the national budget. International capital flows to Thailand remained stable during the crisis but will likely ramp up quickly once calm is restored.
History shows that that the Thai market is both resilient and explosive. Thailand’s benchmark index rose 115% in 2003.
I suggest investors use the closed-end Thai Fund (TF) managed by Daiwa Securities which is trading at a 2% premium with a share price of $9.75 down from a 52-week high of $11.32.
The King has acted, so should you.
06.10.07
Do you want to become a shark of Wall Street? I bet you’d like to make some money like the aces in there, just by investing, investing and then investing some more. And earn couple of percentages from your money every single day?
Couple of percentages isn’t much, or is it? Lets imagine that you’re playing with $500 000 dollars, lets imagine just for a moment. Two percentages of it is $10 000. When you compare this 10k with your initial investment of 500k, it’s not much. I know. But imagine if you could earn 2% income of your money each and every day. This means that after just one month you would have $300 000 extra. Oh wait; actually it’s not just that little. Every day you would have 2% more money to play with. So if you managed to earn 2% of your money every day, you will end the first month with more than $420 000 in additional bucks, total balance will be over $920 000. Sounds great, doesn’t it? Basically, whatever amount you start with, you will be able to double it month by month (assuming you are able to win 2% every day of course).
However, there are two things you need to consider here. Firstly, you do need to start with enough capital to actually earn anything. That’s because of the commissions, etc. But $5000 might be the smallest amount that might actually make everything worthwhile.
The second thing, and that’s the most important point to think about - if it’s that simple, why aren’t everyone making money on the stock market? That’s because it isn’t simple. It’s possible, but it isn’t simple. Whether you’re a long-term investor or a day trader who is buying and selling stocks every day (thus making it possible to earn daily), you need to analyse many different factors of every stock you’re going to buy or sell short. So before you go to the stock market for real, you should prepare yourself. You should read about stock market, market analysis and you should definitely play on virtual stock market that allows you to see if you have what it takes to become a daytrader, person who plays on stock market in hopes to earn quick revenues daily.
So, are you still thinking about becoming a daytrader? I hope you are. At least it would be worth to do some training at some virtual investing environment to see if you’d even make it in the real world.
Siim Einfeldt is the author of InvestingExperience - online investing game available at
http://www.investingexperience.com
05.10.07
It’s Monday April 10, 2006, and this weekend Tiger Woods fell short of getting another Green Jacket as he came in three strokes behind Phil Mickelson, so last years champion became this years presenter as Woods graciously put the Green Jacket on Mickelson.
Earnings season is here again, companies of note that are on tap to report today are Alcoa, Inc (NYSE: AA) they have a conference call set for 5pm today to discuss earnings, Abbot Labs (NYSE: ABT) the estimate is $ .572 compared to an EPS of 58 cents a year ago, CKE Restaurants (NYSE: CKR) the estimate is $0.178 compared to an EPS of 12 cents a year ago, Cascade Corp (NYSE: CAE) the estimate is $0.693 compared to an EPS of 37 cents a year ago, Genetech, Inc (NYSE: DNA) the estimate is $0.413 compared to an EPS of 29 cents a year ago, Rite Aid (NYSE: RAD) the estimate is $0.024 compared to an EPS of 6 cents a year ago, Shaw Group, Inc (NYSE: SGR) the estimate is $0.369 compared to an EPS of 15 cents a year ago, Topps Company (NASDAQ: TOPP) the estimate is $0.043 compared to an EPS of 1 cent a year ago.
We’ll list the companies of note that are reporting this week as their hits and misses may have some effect on their sectors.
Lehman Brothers
Now one of the companies that we hold in high regard on the NAMC Newswire is Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH), the board of directors of the company recently approved a 2 for 1 stock split. The additional shares will be issued as a stock dividend and payable to shareholders of record as of April 18, 2006, it will be issued on or about April 28, 2006. This will bring the number of shares outstanding to approximately 538 million. Even after a split Lehman will still have legs as mergers and acquisitions will continue in 2006. This holds true for another company that we hold in high regard, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), a company that should be trading a lot higher than $161.00.
Our outlook on Lehman Brothers for 2006 is the stock trading between $90.00 and $100.00 post split.
The National Show
The U.S Cable industry is gathering this week in Atlanta, Georgia as the National Show kicks off, an event that is sponsored by the National Cable & Telecommunications Association. Now you would think that only companies like Time Warner (NYSE: TWX), Comcast Cable (NASDAQ: CMCSA), and Cablevision Systems (NYSE: CVC) would be presenting and you would be very wrong. It’s not just about cable television any longer, it’s about the triple play, TV, Voice and Internet.
So phone companies like Verizon (NYSE: VZ), Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) and AT&T (NYSE: T) will be represented as the cable operators are trying to grab market share from them by offering current phone customers a one-stop shop for all of their communication needs.. But it gets better, Internet companies like Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) and possibly Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) will be represented there as well because they are venturing in other areas as the playing field of Internet, Phone and Television come together.
If you are an investor in cable, Internet or phone companies then you should be interested in this topic as it will have an effect on the companies that you own shares in. Go to www.thenationalshow.com .
Hollywood Needs to Open Their Eyes
In the evolution of the entertainment industry, the development of new technology has opened up many new opportunities for growth, but only those companies that take their heads out of the sand and look at digital downloads as the future will benefit.
Mark Cuban, the owner of the basketball team the Dallas Mavericks and a visionary in his own right, earlier this year tried something that was never done before and released the movie “Akeelah and the Bee“, which starred Angela Bassett and Laurence Fishburne, as a theatrical release while simultaneously releasing it on cable television as a pay per view. This was the first sneak peek into the future of new movie releases.
The hit movie “BrokeBack Mountain” which starred Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhall, took another step as they simultaneously released the DVD and the digital download of the movie. Now you would think that this would be a big leap for Hollywood, but you would be wrong. The movie download system that they used has limitations to it, as you can only watch is on your computer, it cannot be burned to a DVD.
This all comes out of the fear that Hollywood has of piracy, but that fear is shutting out potential growth in the industry.
Now, lets look at a company that took the bull by the horns and embraced the new technology and is reaping the rewards. The Adult Video Entertainment Leader and privately held Vivid Entertainment is currently offering their customer the opportunity to download movies from their web site and burn them on a DVD which can be played on their DVD player or computer. Once the consumer makes the purchase they own that copy and can play it where they please.
They are using an encryption process that only allows purchasers to burn the movie to a DVD once and it cannot be copied.
Now Vivid Entertainment is involved in the adult entertainment business and is privately held, so we made mention of them because of how they approached the digital download market.
Now, lets talk about a company that that would benefit tremendously by venturing into this area. The company is Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), the leader in online DVD rentals, they are currently in a battle with Blockbuster Video (NYSE: BBI) for trademark infringement and could win, but that is not the play. They currently do not offer digital downloads of movies but you can bank on it that they are looking into it deeply. Once they can present something to the entertainment industry that shows a comfortable level of protection from piracy you will see the scope of the entertainment industry change. At that point consumers can expect to see their local DVD rental stores change, digital movie downloads may be available via a kiosk located in the store.
This innovation would eliminate the costly process of producing the DVD’s and distributing them, this just adds more profit to the bottom line of the entertainment companies. We see Netflix as the possible leader in this evolution of entertainment.
Two companies in the DVD rental industry to avoid until they come up with a comprehensive plan to adapt are the current leaders in the DVD rental store business Blockbuster and Movie Gallery (NASDAQ: MOVI).
As I repeat this every day, we cannot stress enough that investors need to do their due diligence, call the companies, get the information, consult with your investment advisor and if you do not have one consider getting one. Put the same time into investigating these companies as you do when you go to purchase a new television, it’s only for your protection. When it comes to thinly traded securities stagger your orders or put a limit order in to avoid a run up.
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